@InProceedings{MarengoNobr:2002:AsClCh,
               author = "Marengo, Jose A. and Nobre, Carlos Afonso",
                title = "Regional aspects of the IPCC Third Assessment Report. Assessment 
                         of climate change scenarios due to increase greenhouse gases in 
                         the Amazon Basin",
                 year = "2002",
         organization = "International LBA Scientific Conference, 2.",
             keywords = "METEOROLOGIA.",
             abstract = "The release of the IPCC Third Assessment Report has brought to 
                         attention the possible impacts of the increase in the 
                         concentration of greenhouse gases in climate change in the Amazon 
                         basin, beside the possible effect of regional deforestation on 
                         climate. New models and new developments have allowed some new 
                         insight on climate change scenarios in the Amazon region, as 
                         compared to the Second Assessment report of IPCC released in 1996. 
                         The four emissions scenarios were combined with low, medium and 
                         high levels of {"}climate sensitivity{"} for all climate model 
                         projections from the PCCDDC. The combination of 'low emissions + 
                         low climate sensitivity' (B1)through to 'high emissions + high 
                         climate sensitivity' (A2)produce a range of future global warming 
                         and sea-level rise curves that span perhaps 90 per cent of likely 
                         future climates. Projected regional changes include for A2 
                         increases in temperature between 3 to 4C while B1 suggest changes 
                         in 1-3 C, with the warming being more pronounced during winter 
                         than in summer. Changes in precipitation are inconsistent for A2, 
                         s howing increases of 5-10 percent during summer, while all year 
                         long the changes vary from 0+10 percent whole for B1 changes in 
                         projected rainfall varies from 0+5 percent . It is expected than 
                         rainfall reductions forecasted by the IPCC would be in addition to 
                         those expected possible due to deforestation, as proposed by 
                         numerical experiments of deforestation. For the Amazon basin, 
                         changes in temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise for 
                         Century XXI, would affect the hydrological cycle (especially 
                         evaporation)in the region, affecting biodiversity and natural 
                         ecosystems, and agricultural activities, as well as extreme 
                         weather events in the region, such as the passage of cold fronts 
                         and the presence of dry spells and rainy days. These projections 
                         exhibit a degree of uncertainty due the differences between 
                         models, since some of them exhibit problems in representing the 
                         summer-autumn rainfall maximum in northern-central Amazonia, and 
                         the fact that these projections are at regional scale, with some 
                         regional details missing since there is not an availability of 
                         downscaled climate change scenarios valid for the different 
                         sections of the basin.",
  conference-location = "Manaus, Br",
      conference-year = "7-10 July 2002",
                label = "10237",
           targetfile = "9318.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 maio 2024"
}